NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/18/2025

The Nuggets have been consistently undervalued throughout this series, covering the spread in 5 of 6 games despite being underdogs in each contest. Denver has championship experience that's proving valuable, having already won a Game 7 convincingly against the Clippers this postseason.

The veteran Nuggets squad has an impressive 7-1-1 ATS record in their last nine games as underdogs, including five outright wins. More impressively, they're 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games when getting 6+ points, showing they thrive in the underdog role.

Denver has the best player on the court in Nikola Jokic, who's been dominant this series, including 29 points on efficient 9-of-14 shooting in Game 6. Jamal Murray produced 25 points despite being sick, showing the Nuggets' determination and grit.

The underdog has covered eight of the last ten matchups between these teams, establishing a clear betting pattern. Denver has also covered four straight playoff games as underdogs, showing they're rising to the postseason challenge.

While Oklahoma City has home court advantage, most of their players lack Game 7 experience, which could be significant. The Thunder's role players struggled in Game 6, shooting a combined 15-of-43, and they'll need to bounce back significantly to cover this large spread.

Denver enters Game 7 with significant momentum after a convincing 119-107 victory in Game 6. The Nuggets have championship DNA and just won a Game 7 against the Clippers last round, while most Thunder players lack this high-stakes elimination game experience.

The Nuggets have the most impactful player on the court in Nikola Jokic, who's been nearly unstoppable this series. His playmaking and scoring ability in clutch moments gives Denver a distinct advantage in a winner-take-all scenario.

Oklahoma City's role players have underperformed away from their comfort zone, with Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace shooting a combined 15-of-43 in Game 6. Even at home, the pressure of Game 7 could affect their performance.

Denver has won three of their last four Game 7s, showing they thrive in these pressure-cooker situations. The experience gap becomes magnified in elimination games where every possession matters.

While the Thunder have been excellent at home (4-1 this postseason), the Nuggets have proven they can win on the road as underdogs, making this a strong value play at plus-money odds against a young Thunder team in their first Game 7 together.

Game 7s typically feature tighter defense and more deliberate offensive possessions as teams become risk-averse. Both teams understand the stakes, and with the season on the line, expect a more controlled, half-court oriented game.

Denver's defense has tightened considerably in their last few games, and they'll look to slow the pace against the younger Thunder team. Oklahoma City is averaging just 105.3 points allowed this postseason, showing their defensive prowess.

The pressure of a decisive Game 7 often leads to shooting struggles, particularly from role players who may be experiencing this environment for the first time. The Thunder are shooting just 32.1% from three-point range in the playoffs while the Nuggets are at 35.9%.

Both teams will likely emphasize defensive rebounding to limit second-chance opportunities, further suppressing the scoring. The teams are evenly matched on the boards, each averaging 46.4 rebounds per game in the playoffs.

The coaching staffs have seven games of tactical adjustments behind them, meaning they've identified and can better exploit defensive matchups. With everything on the line, expect a physical, grinding contest that stays under the total.